Tom Mulcair: Is Trudeau set to pull the trigger on prorogation?

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For Canadian politicians, prorogation is the emergency brake you pull when your government train is about to run off the rails.

Prorogation, simply put, occurs when a prime minister asks the Governor General to suspend Parliament for a time in order to hit reset. In practical political terms, it often serves to distract and delay when you’re in deep trouble.

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Stephen Harper famously used it to save his minority Conservative government when the Liberals and the NDP signed an agreement to oust him. Gov. Gen. Michaël Jean was no fan of Harper, but she was bound by constitutional convention to grant his request for prorogation.

The inclusion of Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe at that agreement’s announcement turned out to be its downfall. He wasn’t formally part of the deal but had promised to support the new government that would result from the Liberal-NDP entente. Harper played the separatist card skilfully, and the NDP-Liberal quasi-coalition was soon dead in the water.

Justin Trudeau also used prorogation once, at the height of the WE Charity scandal that was severely damaging his Liberal minority government. That prorogation and the ensuing pause allowed Trudeau enough time to get rid of the pesky Parliamentary committees that had been dogging him on his ethics.

Prorogation stops the work of committees and flushes pending bills. That could endanger some of the legislation needed to give effect to certain promises made to the NDP concerning pharmacare and dental care.

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The self-important huffing and puffing of the Bloc, as it imposes demands that Trudeau pass legislation involving massive new spending, is going nowhere. Trudeau won’t accept to be told how high to jump by separatists. While Canada may not be broken, it is certainly broke — and further increasing the deficit is not an option.

Prorogation, I am told by sources at the highest level in Ottawa, is back on the table for the Liberals.

The real question, politically, is what is Trudeau going to do once he prorogues?

No reset is going to change his increasingly disastrous polling numbers. On Sunday, Abacus published a new poll that had the Liberals behind the NDP in English Canada, unheard of since the heady start of the 2015 campaign.

The same sources tell me that Trudeau has finally decided to face reality, and it is brutal. If he persists and stays in office, he will — because of his own unpopularity — cause the election of his nemesis Pierre Poilievre.

The Liberals, of course, have an enduring brand and an outstanding candidate waiting in the wings. Mark Carney has the experience and expertise to take apart the junior college economic musings of Poilievre. The real question here is: Will he run?

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It would be a crowded race, but prorogation would ensure that the Liberal leadership got unhindered coverage for its duration. Poilievre would lose his Question Period soapbox during the hiatus, and Singh would have trouble getting any attention.

Everything from the leadership debates to policy proposals would be front and centre, just as the debates between Poilievre and his opponents received prime attention during the Conservative contest, launching him on his current trajectory.

There’s an old saying that you have to be careful what you wish for. Last week, as the Conservatives introduced their second confidence motion, one of their MPs goaded the Liberals, saying Trudeau should go see the Governor General and ask for dissolution of Parliament. He may see part of his wish granted. Trudeau may very well decide to go to Mary Simon — not for dissolution but for prorogation.

All bets will be off if Trudeau quits and a new Liberal leader is given the chance to engage and inspire Canadians.

Tom Mulcair, a former leader of the federal NDP, served as minister of the environment in the Quebec Liberal government of Jean Charest.

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