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Quebec isn’t on-track to meet the provincial government’s goals to become carbon neutral and as wealthy as Ontario, according to a new report that suggests those two targets are in conflict with each other.
The report released Wednesday by the Institut du Québec, a non-profit think tank, found that Quebec is not reducing its carbon emissions fast enough to meet the government’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 and that efforts to grow the economy will likely lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
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“Our analysis shows that closing the wealth gap with Ontario, as the Quebec government is currently aiming to do, would lead to an increase in GHG emissions in Quebec, because, surprisingly, our economy emits the same amount of GHGs per dollar of GDP as its neighbour,” Emna Braham, the executive director of the Institut du Québec and a co-author of the study, said in a statement. “If the Quebec government wants to meet both its environmental and economic objectives, it will have to thoroughly review its public policies.”
Quebec Premier François Legault has frequently spoken about his desire to close the “wealth gap” with Ontario — the difference in per-capita GDP between the two provinces — and has set a goal of matching Ontario’s per-capita GDP by 2036.
Achieving either of those goals would be a challenge, the report says, but doing both will be particularly difficult because Quebec will have to reduce emissions that are currently produced by ongoing economic activity, while limiting the emissions created by economic growth.
“If Quebec wants to reach Ontario’s level of wealth while becoming the first carbon-neutral state in North America, it will definitely have to better coordinate its public policies,” the report reads. “Without proper coordination, the chances of simultaneously achieving the objectives of these two policies are very slim.”
The report, whose publication was financially supported by the federal government, encourages public policy makers to consider the “carbon intensity” of economic activities — the amount of greenhouse gases generated per dollar of GDP generated by those activities.
While some industries, such as wholesale trade and manufacturing, have reduced their carbon intensity enough to allow for economic growth and emissions reductions at the same time, in other sectors, like agriculture, construction and aluminum production, economic growth would lead to increased emissions, according to the report.
Other industries, such as mining and transport equipment manufacturing, have increased their “carbon intensity” since 2009, the report found.
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