The Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun might fall next Monday, as a a recent poll by Mainstreet Research reveals that Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé is leading in voter intentions for the riding, where a byelection is set to take place with national significance.
The poll shows 29.6 per cent support for the Bloc candidate. The Liberal Party of Canada candidate, Laura Palestini, is in second with 24.1 per cent, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate, Craig Sauvé, has 23.0 per cent support. The Conservative Party of Canada candidate, Louis Ialenti, is trailing with 7.3 per cent.
The poll, conducted from Saturday to Monday using automated calls with 443 adults residing in the riding, has a margin of error of 4.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20. It confirms that the Bloc Québécois maintains its lead, even though another poll by the same firm on September 3 and 4 showed 30.7 per cent for the Bloc candidate, 23.3 per cent for the Liberal, 19.4 per cent for the NDP, and 8.1 per cent for the Conservative. The Canadian Press had access to this poll, which had not been made public.
On Wednesday, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was already smelling victory. “It smells good, it smells very good,” he told volunteers as he entered the campaign office. To journalists, he explained that he was “at the point where we are running towards the finish line, without looking at the distance of those who might be behind.”
However, in an interview with the Canadian Press on Wednesday evening, Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi warned that “nothing is decided yet.” According to him, the most interesting aspect of the poll is the significant rise of the NDP in just a few days, a situation he attributes to Jagmeet Singh’s announcement that his party was ending the agreement that allowed Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to stay in power without much fear.
He explained that his team decided to conduct the second poll after noticing during the first that NDP support was increasing significantly on the second day of data collection, the day after the announcement. Maggi believes this NDP rise might continue. “Could they catch up? Yes, it’s possible.”
Maggi also thinks the Bloc made “a big mistake” and might lose support after recently indicating that it might back the Liberals in confidence votes in exchange for key issues, such as increasing seniors’ pensions or more powers for Quebec in immigration. “Voters might think, ‘We weren’t going to vote for the NDP because they supported the Liberals. And now, our party, the Bloc, is going to support the Liberals? Maybe I should change my vote in this context,’” he illustrated.
As for the Liberals, their “path” to victory depends on vote splitting and the hope that the opposition vote does not consolidate around one of the other parties. The get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly in by-elections where the outcome doesn’t drastically change the composition of the House of Commons, are crucial, explained political scientist Geneviève Tellier from the University of Ottawa.
Moreover, beyond the election machinery, the Bloc Québécois benefits from an advantage at the polls. Their hidden card is that their voters are generally older than those of their opponents. A study by Elections Canada published last year estimated that 46.7 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 voted in the last general election, compared to 74.9 per cent of those aged 65 to 74.
On September 16, the outcome in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will be more than just a regional race, insisted Professor Tellier, as all observers will scrutinize the message sent by the result. “We want to know if the Liberals can hold on to their strongholds and if what happened in Toronto–St. Paul’s (where they suffered a major defeat in June) was just an accident or if it’s a significant trend,” she summarized.
According to her, a defeat would be “dramatic” for the Liberals. For the Bloc and the NDP, it will be about determining who positions themselves as the best alternative to the Liberals. In the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9 per cent of the vote, far ahead of his competitors. The Bloc candidate received 22.1 per cent of the vote, the NDP candidate came in third with 19.4 per cent, and the Conservative received 7.5 per cent. The People’s Party candidate got 3.4 per cent, and the Green Party candidate received 3.0 per cent.
–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews