Voters have dealt Prime Minister Justin Trudeau another devastating byelection loss, this time picking a Bloc Québécois candidate in a Montreal riding that’s been held by the Liberals for most of the last century.
The defeat in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is Trudeau’s second byelection loss in a safe Liberal seat in the last three months and it raises questions about his long-term viability as party leader.
Ahead of the final results in the byelection in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, New Democratic Party candidate Leila Dance thanked her team and family for their help and support during her campaign.
Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé very narrowly beat Liberal Laura Palestini — a stunning upset given the governing party’s past strength in this part of southwest Montreal. NDP candidate Craig Sauvé finished third.
It was one of the tightest three-way electoral battles in recent memory with the leading candidates trading places throughout the count and a final result only known after 2:30 a.m. ET.
In the end, the Bloc’s Sauvé took 28 per cent compared to 27.2 per cent for Palestini and 26.1 per cent for the New Democrat. Fewer than 250 votes separated the Bloc and Liberal candidates.
Colin Reynolds, the Conservative byelection candidate in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, said his result in the byelection ‘was not what we were hoping for.’
While the other parties squabble with one another and take on an increasingly nasty tone in the House of Commons, the Bloc “presented ourselves to voters as the adults in the room,” said Bloc MP Christine Normandin from Sauvé’s victory party.
“We’re working for the people of Quebec. The voters here are telling us, ‘Please continue to fight for us.’ They’re sending a message to the government. The Bloc has the support of the population and we will make more gains for Quebecers,” she said.
NDP win in Winnipeg-area seat
NDP candidate Leila Dance won the Winnipeg seat of Elmwood-Transcona.
The result isn’t much of a shock because this working-class community in the city’s east end has been represented by a New Democrat for most of the last 45 years.
Elmwood-Transcona is one of the NDP’s safest seats. Only seven seats across the country were safer for the party in the last general election, according to a CBC News analysis of voting data.
Ahead of final results in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun byelection, Liberal party candidate Laura Palestini thanks those who worked on her campaign for their enthusiasm and support.
But the margin of victory is narrower this time than in years past — a sign that while the NDP pulled in enough votes to win again, the party’s brand has taken a bit of a hit.
Dance, a small business advocate, bested Conservative candidate and electrician Colin Reynolds by about four percentage points — a fraction of what outgoing MP Daniel Blaikie posted in this riding last time.
Polls suggest the NDP have been struggling to make a breakthrough with voters even as their main progressive opponent, the governing Liberal Party, is on a downward slide.
To this point, the biggest beneficiary of Liberal weakness has been Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
But Poilievre couldn’t pull off a win in Winnipeg, despite optimism from some of the party’s MPs that the Conservatives would take it with the NDP stuck in neutral nationwide.
Ahead of final results in the Montreal byelection in the riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun Monday night, NDP candidate Craig Sauvé said his campaign was a dream and thanked his supporters.
The Conservatives, however, performed much better here than they did in the 2021 general election, which suggests Poilievre’s popularity in opinion polls is translating into some success at the ballot box.
The NDP victory could be interpreted as a vindication of Singh’s decision to back out of a deal to prop up the Liberal government just days before this byelection.
NDP ends agreement with Liberals
Singh initiated the breakup to show voters he’s not beholden to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The decision to step away from the deal gave the party the opportunity to tell voters that a vote for the NDP is a vote for change.
Singh ripped up the supply-and-confidence agreement earlier this month, saying the Liberals are out of new ideas and too soft on “corporate greed.”
Liberals, in turn, have accused Singh of abandoning progressive policies that haven’t yet cleared Parliament, including the promised pharmacare program.
Singh has also walked back his past support for the government’s carbon tax, saying he wants to propose an alternative that’s less punitive for consumers. Trudeau said Monday Singh caved in the face of Conservative criticism.
The Liberal vote in Elmwood-Transcona collapsed.
The Liberal standard-bearer, Ian MacIntyre, is on track to post one of the worst byelection results for a candidate from the governing party in Canadian history.
The party was not expected to be competitive given it finished a distant third in the 2021 general election and polls suggest Liberals are a lot less popular now than they were then.
But the drop was still notable with the Liberal candidate taking less than five per cent of the vote — down about 10 percentage points from last time.