The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to lose ground to the Parti québécois (PQ) in voter intentions, according to Pallas Data latest’s poll.
Premier François Legault’s party is now in third place, behind the PQ and the provincial Liberals (PLQ).
According to Pallas Data, based in Toronto, the PQ once again leads among decided voters, at 33 per cent, 10 points ahead of the PLQ, at 23 per cent. The CAQ comes third with 20 per cent, while Québec solidaire (QS) has 13 per cent support.
The Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) came last with 11 per cent.
The wind blowing in the PQ’s sails shows no signs of slowing down.
In the previous Pallas poll in February, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party took 31 per cent of the vote, which means that it’s gained two percentage points in two months.
Conversely, the CAQ’s decline continues. The party has lost three points since February, and is struggling in the Montreal crowns, where it made significant gains in the 2022 election.
The surprise of the survey, however, comes from the PLQ, which comes second in voting intentions thanks to a jump of eight percentage points since February. QS is also losing ground to the PQ, as shown by its four-point drop since February.
This Pallas Data poll, conducted on April 20 and 21 among a random sample of 1,256 respondents, was commissioned by Qc125. The margin of error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
According to Qc125 creator Philippe J. Fournier, he told ‘L’actualité’ these results show the scale of the challenge facing the CAQ, since in addition to its oft-mentioned setbacks in the Quebec City region, the party is also struggling in Greater Montreal and elsewhere in the province.
In Greater Montreal, the CAQ garnered 18 per cent of support, the PLQ at 32 per cent and the PQ at 30 per cent).
In the Capitale-Nationale region, Legault’s party received 16 per cent support, less than the PQ at 38 per cent and the PCQ at 30 per cent.
In the rest of Quebec, the CAQ (24 per cent) came second, behind the PQ (38 per cent).
Despite the Liberals’ significant jump (up eight percentage points since February), Fournier points out that “further polling will be necessary before we can determine whether this is an outlier.”
It is possible, however, that the PQ’s outspoken affirmation of its intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence by 2030, should it come to power, could boost the PLQ’s support.
“However, it is important to point out that the PLQ risks reaching a plateau if it fails to increase its support in the French-speaking majority, where it has only 10 per cent of support according to Pallas,” Fournier wrote.
QS is also suffering from the rise of the PQ, according to the founder of Qc125.
He noted that only 65 per cent of QS voters in 2022 still support the party, while 30 per cent have turned to the PQ.
Léger poll also released Tuesday
Another poll, conducted by Léger and released on Tuesday afternoon, is much less favourable to the PLQ. It puts the Liberals in third place with 15 per cent support, well behind the PQ at 34 per cent and the CAQ at 24 per cent. QS is fourth at 14 per cent and the PCQ fifth at 10 per cent.
The survey was conducted for Le Journal de Montréal, Le Journal de Québec and TVA among 1,026 Quebecers (including 849 decided voters) between April 19 and 21.
–This report by La Presse Canadienne was translated by CityNews