Analysis: Chassin’s departure shows political reality has caught up with CAQ’s principles

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QUEBEC — Perhaps the most surprising part of Youri Chassin’s spectacular departure Thursday from the Coalition Avenir Québec government is that it took him this long to realize he had no future there.

In the six years that the CAQ has been in power, the party Premier François Legault created in 2011 has strayed a long way from many of the lofty principles he himself outlined at the beginning and that Chassin bought into when he left his perch as a researcher at the right-wing Montreal Economic Institute to become the MNA for St-Jérôme.

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Less government has become more government. Fewer bureaucrats have become more bureaucrats. Better services have become worse services. Financial restraint has morphed into a historic $11-billion deficit that will take Finance Minister Eric Girard (or his successor) five years to wrestle into submission.

“I tried everything I could internally, in the party, with cabinet ministers and last night with the premier,” an emotional Chassin said Thursday as he announced he was quitting to sit as an independent. “I believed right up to Wednesday night.

“I tried everything to get us back to the CAQ agenda. I did not succeed, and my conclusion is that we have arrived at mid-mandate and are in the same situation. I can’t look voters in the eye and say the government is doing good things for Quebec. It is time for me to leave.

“Today, I can no longer defend the CAQ before my voters.”

Chassin had one particularly brutal parting line. He said his time in politics has allowed him to conclude one thing: nothing has really changed in government in 20 years.

“It is the tangible symptom that Quebec is in the process of becoming a republic of the status quo,” he said, borrowing a line from a 2005 report calling for a government shakeup known as the Manifeste des lucides.

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What got in the way of the CAQ’s lofty goals, many copied directly from the old Action démocratique du Québec party, which was swallowed up by the CAQ?

Start with certain political realities. Legault, who calls himself a pragmatic, did what all of his predecessors have done with success once in office: he has governed from the vote-rich middle of the spectrum.

That entails mastering the art of the compromise: trying to stick with some of your original goals at the same time as appeasing the real bosses of Quebec, which are the bond-rating agencies evaluating the province’s debt — currently four times higher than originally anticipated.

In his comments on Chassin’s news conference, Legault was blunt:

“Some like Youri would like us to go faster (on reducing the debt),” he said. “All right, but when I ask what spending cuts to do, I get no answers.”

He said Chassin is right in saying the public sector has grown under the CAQ’s watch, but most of the jobs were in the long-strapped health and education sectors because citizens wanted more services.

Quebec has an aging population and the recent influx of temporary immigrants and asylum seekers has added to the demand for services, he argued.

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It is an answer of a politician midway through a second term of office, which traditionally is the most difficult.

Expectations are high that the government can solve Quebec’s problems following many electoral promises, but resources are limited. That creates a fear that new spending will be restricted, and that is already happening.

In the last weeks, there have been complaints about the fiscal restraint from the CEGEP and university network, which have been told to curb their infrastructure spending. Public daycares are carrying record-high levels of debt.

The crunch will be felt even more as Quebec struggles to deal with public-sector wage increases it granted at the same time as seeing revenues drop in a stagnant economy.

Girard has mentioned several times in the last two weeks that Quebec’s financial picture has “deteriorated,” a situation he is expected to outline in his November economic update.

In last March’s Quebec budget, the government launched two working committees to identify program spending reductions, but that process is long term.

Legault has to walk the line knowing that in his own caucus there are hawks who want spending curbed and others pushing more programs, more services. In his comments Thursday, Legault was careful not to blast Chassin for leaving.

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He acknowledged there are “little differences” of opinion with certain MNAs on the deficit question.

At the same time as he was speaking, one of those MNAs, former cabinet minister Pierre Dufour (Abitibi-Est), was telling reporters he found Chassin’s comments helpful because they will allow for a more lively debate within caucus.

He said there needs to be a “refocusing” of certain issues in the government, code for Chassin is not entirely off base.

Adding to the drama over the departure, the leader of the Quebec Conservatives, Éric Duhame — who is on the lookout for a defector to give his party a seat in the legislature — issued a statement Friday on X praising Chassin’s “courage” and inviting other disgruntled CAQ MNAs to join his party.

“The time has come for caquistes who support François Legault do draw the same lucid conclusions as Mr. Chassin,” he wrote.

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Chassin is the fourth CAQ MNA since 2022 to call it quits. Two of the four were in the last two weeks. Economy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon resigned Aug. 2, forcing a byelection in his old riding of Terrebonne,

If there is one positive note for Legault after another rough week at the office, it is that Chassin did him the favour of not quitting as an MNA. That means no difficult byelection in St-Jérôme, a riding on the Parti Québécois hit list.

pauthier@postmedia.com

x.com/philipauthier

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