Analysis: Trudeau’s Liberals hold ground in Quebec amid national collapse

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals remain stubbornly competitive in Quebec strongholds even as support crumbles in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.

But the Bloc Québécois leads in the polls in the province, the Conservatives are pushing hard to make headway, and the New Democratic Party is hoping a win in a Montreal byelection next week will snap it out of the doldrums.

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An early federal election became more likely after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh pulled his formal support for Trudeau’s minority government last week.

In other parts of Canada, the Conservatives are soaring and polls suggest they would win a majority government if an election were held now. That has put pressure on Trudeau to resign after nine years in office.

But the political landscape remains relatively stable in Quebec, said Andrew Enns, an executive vice-president at Léger Marketing.

Unlike in most other parts of Canada, “the Liberal vote is holding fairly steady” in Quebec, he said. “They’re reasonably competitive, at least in the seats they hold.”

Enns said it could be a situation “where the election campaign will have to actually begin in earnest before we start to maybe see a little bit of movement amongst Quebec voters.”

Trudeau’s Quebec roots and the fact that he represents the Montreal riding of Papineau may be helping him in the province, said McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland.

“The Liberals also have this base of support among anglophones and allophones. Most of them will never vote for the Bloc; historically, they have not voted for the Conservatives, either.”’

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Some anglophone leaders say Trudeau is not doing enough to stand up for their minority community amid new language rules imposed by Premier François Legault’s CAQ government.

But Trudeau has hung on to support in Quebec, Enns said. Forty per cent of non-francophones back the Liberals, compared with 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 22 per cent for the NDP, a Léger poll found last month.

That’s not to say Quebecers are particularly happy with the Trudeau government. Polling suggests dissatisfaction is widespread but not nearly as deep as it is in the rest of Canada.

“There’s not a lot of enthusiasm (in Quebec) for any of the leaders,” Enns said.

He pointed to a June survey in which Léger asked who would make the best prime minister. In Quebec, 22 per cent said Trudeau, 20 per cent Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and 13 per cent Singh. Almost 40 per cent didn’t know or wouldn’t answer.

Conservatives push for gains

Elsewhere, Poilievre has harnessed anger over the federal carbon tax. But “axe the tax” doesn’t resonate in Quebec. The province is exempt because it puts a price on pollution via a cap-and-trade system.

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Still, Poilievre is making moves in Quebec.

He has recruited former Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Eric Lefebvre as a candidate, and there’s speculation that another CAQ MNA — Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard — may also jump to the federal Conservatives.

Poilievre also hopes for a breakthrough in a Montreal riding: Mount-Royal. The Conservatives tapped lawyer Neil Oberman to take on Liberal MP Anthony Housefather in the Liberal fortress.

The Conservatives could take some seats away from the Bloc.

But Poilievre “still has work to do to broaden his appeal,” Enns said.

He said accusations that the Conservatives are “dabbling with some of those far-right groups … probably doesn’t sit well” in the province.

NDP hopes for byelection boost

Quebecers have sized up Singh in two general elections. So far, they haven’t taken to him in large numbers.

Singh would have a chance to change that if his party’s candidate wins the Sept. 16 byelection in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.

The Montreal riding normally goes Liberal. It was previously held by former Trudeau cabinet minister David Lametti.

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Observers say the race is a toss-up and could go to Liberal Laura Palestini, the NDP’s Craig Sauvé or the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

“If the NDP wins the seat, I think Quebecers might say, ‘Oh, you know, they are not dead in Quebec and they are even gaining ground,’” Béland said.

“That could be a game changer for the NDP that could really help them in Quebec.”

Bloc Québécois gains leverage

Some surveys have shown the Bloc, which only runs in Quebec, far ahead of the Liberals in the province.

But in its latest seat projection, poll aggregator 338Canada.ca suggests the Bloc could win 36 of 78 House of Commons seats if an election were held now. That’s four more than in 2021.

The Liberals are at 27 seats (down eight from the last election) while the Conservatives are at 14 (up four), according to the projection. The NDP is stuck at one, unchanged from 2021.

The national projection shows the Liberals garnering 77 seats across the country in a hypothetical election — a loss of half its current seats.

“The Bloc could gain from a federal election but maybe not that much,” Béland said.

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The party would probably prefer to prop up the Liberal government over the 13 months before the next scheduled election in October 2025, he added.

“The Bloc benefits from being in the minority Parliament because they have more clout than if you have a Conservative majority government, which will be the likely outcome of a federal election.”

Under the now-scrapped deal with the NDP, the minority Liberals could count on that party’s support in confidence votes. With the NDP out, losing such a vote now would topple the Liberals.

From now on, the NDP says it will decide how it will vote on a case-by-case basis, and the party is expected to try to squeeze compromises out of the Liberals.

It’s a similar story with the Bloc. It has new leverage in Parliament, potentially giving it the balance of power.

Expect the pro-sovereignty party to seek gains for Quebec on issues such as immigration, where Legault wants more power.

Under the federal Liberals, the number of temporary foreign workers and students has risen dramatically, sparking a backlash.

Immigration is a top issue across Canada but especially in Quebec, where nationalists have long flagged newcomers’ impact on the French language. Legault has also complained that immigration has exacerbated Quebec’s housing crisis and strained public services.

ariga@postmedia.com

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