If an election were held today, Parti Québecois might gain power: poll

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As François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec government reaches the mid-point of its second term, the Parti Québecois, which holds only four of the 125 seats in the National Assembly, would win a majority government if an election were held today, a new poll conducted for the Qc125 aggregator site and L’Actualité news site suggests.

The telephone survey, conducted with 1,111 Quebec adults on Sept. 26, shows the PQ leading in voter popularity with 34 per cent, followed by the CAQ with 22 per cent, the Quebec Liberal Party with 18 per cent, the Quebec Conservative Party with 14 per cent and Québec solidaire with 12 per cent.

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A Pallas survey conducted last June produced essentially the same results on voter intention for the PQ and CAQ, however the gut punch contained for the Legault government in this latest survey is that the PQ, which has enjoyed a surge in popularity since the government has lurched from one crisis to another since last October’s byelection in Jean-Talon riding, now leads the CAQ in every region, demographic and linguistic block of voters. Those leads — well over the poll’s three percentage point margin of error — also allow the PQ’s popularity to translate into a majority government.

Support among French-speaking voters, a determining factor of elections in Quebec, shows the PQ enjoying 42 per cent support among francophones, compared with 23 per cent for the CAQ. The Quebec Liberals, while polling 43 per cent support among non-francophones, placed dead last with francophones with just 10 per cent support.

The PQ has also made significant inroads within the CAQ’s traditional base of older voters, polling 30 per cent with those between the ages of 50-64 — eight points ahead of the CAQ — and 38 per cent with voters 65 and over, nine points ahead of the government.

Polling at 34 per cent in the greater Montreal area, the PQ leads the second-place Liberals by 11 points. The PQ also enjoys an 11-point lead over the CAQ in the Quebec City area and a 33-per-cent lead in the rest of the province, eight points ahead of the CAQ.

The survey results come as the increasingly beleaguered CAQ finds itself at odds with Ottawa over the issue of immigration, as uncertainty grows over the government’s Northvolt battery project and concern increases over the Legault government’s handling of the economy.

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