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Quebec isn’t on track to meet the provincial government’s goals to become carbon neutral and as wealthy as Ontario, according to a new report that suggests those two targets are currently in conflict with each other.
The report released Wednesday by the Institut du Québec, a non-profit think tank, found that Quebec is not reducing its carbon emissions fast enough to meet the government’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 and that efforts to grow the economy will probably lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
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The report suggests that if Quebec wants to meet the two goals, it will have to develop a coherent public policy that considers economic and environmental impacts at the same time.
“In recent years, Quebec has set two major goals for itself,” said Emna Braham, the executive director of the Institut du Québec and a co-author of the study. One of those goals is to have the same GDP per capita as Ontario — which has been referred to as closing the “wealth gap” — while the other aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37.5 per cent between now and 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality in 2050.
Taken on their own, each of those goals is ambitious and the most recent data suggests that Quebec is likely to miss both of them, Braham said in an interview, but “reaching them together would really be a feat, because we have to, at the same time, reduce current greenhouse gas emissions and prevent the future economic growth that we want from creating new emissions.”
Quebec Premier François Legault has frequently spoken about his desire to close the “wealth gap” with Ontario — the difference in per-capita GDP between the two provinces — and has set a goal of matching Ontario’s per-capita GDP by 2036. He has also regularly talked about making the province a leader in a new “green” economy.
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Braham said Quebec needs to use new tools to ensure its environmental and economic goals are coherent. Her report focuses on one of those, a measure called “carbon intensity” — the amount of greenhouse gases produced per dollar of GDP generated by specific economic activities. She said it’s a useful metric because it looks at both emissions and economic impact.
And while Quebec’s carbon intensity is declining, it will have to decline much faster for Quebec to reach its goals, she said. If carbon intensity continues to decline at the current pace, it will drop another 16 per cent by 2030. But for Quebec to reach the two goals, it will have to decline 42 per cent between now and 2030.
Some industries, such as wholesale trade and manufacturing, have reduced their carbon intensity enough to allow for economic growth and emissions reductions at the same time. In other sectors, like agriculture, construction and aluminum production, economic growth would lead to increased emissions, according to the report.
Other industries, such as mining, cement production and transport-equipment manufacturing, have increased their carbon intensity since 2009, the report found.
However, Braham said it’s more complex than just encouraging the growth of low carbon-intensity sectors, and some high-intensity activities like mining minerals used in electric batteries may be part of larger strategies to reduce emissions.
The report, whose publication was financially supported by the federal government, is the first in a series. The next report will look at how specific sectors can reduce their carbon intensity, Braham said, and others will suggest other indicators and look at measures that can be taken by government.
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