Robert Libman: Montreal byelection could spell end for Trudeau and Singh

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Despite all the media speculation, the leadership discussion within the federal Liberal caucus has so far remained pretty much bottled up inside the party, with public comments about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau relatively mitigated. But the bottle could pop after Monday night, depending on results of the byelection in the Liberal stronghold of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, left vacant with the resignation of former justice minister David Lametti.

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Trudeau swept to power in a red wave of enthusiasm in 2015, but nine years later, as with many incumbent governments, an impatient population appears hungry for change, and the prime minister’s popularity has plummeted, with the Liberals currently polling 20 points behind the Conservatives.

Liberal members and MPs are fully aware of how vulnerable they are with Trudeau remaining leader, but the bench with potential successors is not very deep. A loss on Monday would undoubtedly intensify a schism in the party. Many would see his departure as the only way to flip the narrative before next year’s election, versus those who might still hope an improving economy by then, together with Trudeau’s campaign skills, could turn the tide.

Another party facing a key test in this byelection is the NDP, which, contrary to the Liberals, seems oblivious to the fact it has a leadership problem. Voters have not warmed to Jagmeet Singh, who tries to wrap himself in virtue that often comes across as self-righteous rhetoric and is disingenuous if not willing to walk the walk. A lawyer by profession, he’s barely made a peep, for example, about Quebec’s pre-emptive use of the notwithstanding clause to adopt religious-symbols legislation that effectively prohibits him from being a Crown prosecutor or judge in this province, unless he compromises his identity and removes his turban.

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His press conference last week to explain why he suddenly decided to rip up the “supply-and-confidence agreement” — which has kept the Liberal minority government in power — came off as cringeworthy political theatre. After patting himself on the back for delivering dental care and pharmacare thanks to the deal, he was now accusing Trudeau of selling out to “big corporate greed.” He went on to say the next election will be a choice between Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with his “corporate buddies,” and the NDP, which will “save Canadians money for groceries and rent.” Singh might feel he had to tear up the agreement to dissociate from an unpopular Trudeau, but here’s a news flash: the NDP still trails the Liberals by double digits. Singh didn’t rule out that the NDP might still vote with the Liberals on individual confidence motions anyway to avoid an election.

With the Liberals’ drop in popularity, one would expect the NDP to reap the benefits among disillusioned left-leaning voters, but it hasn’t happened with Singh. More shameless NDP pandering cropped up this week with incendiary anti-Israel pamphlets distributed by the party’s byelection candidate proclaiming: “I will vote for Craig Sauvé to stop the genocide in Gaza.” It’s hard to know whether it’s ignorance or just another example of an exaggerated sense of self-importance that would lead anyone to suggest an independent city councillor running in a Canadian byelection would have any bearing on events in the Middle East.

Most local voters haven’t seemed engaged in this byelection, but pundits certainly are — because the results could alter the federal leadership landscape. I suspect the Bloc Québécois may win this riding, which is majority francophone. If the Liberals lose their stronghold, pressure on Trudeau will urgently intensify to make a definitive decision about his future. The NDP had high hopes. If they lose, their members might finally recognize that their leader should step aside if they wish to make any headway before next year’s general election.

Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election. X@robertlibman

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