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Recent polling shows that the Conservative Party of Canada has a slight lead in Quebec, a stretch from the norm for the province.
The Bloc Québécois has been the frontrunner in Quebec in the majority of polls this year, followed typically by the Liberal Party of Canada.
A graph from Polling Canada depicting federal polling trends in the province since the 2021 election shows a steady increase for the Conservatives since about a quarter of the way through 2023, with a corresponding drop for the Liberals in the same time frame.
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Both the Bloc and the Conservatives have regularly been polling above their last election results.
The most recent Abacus poll from Aug. 7 shows the Conservatives at 31 per cent in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois a close second at 30 per cent and the Liberals trailing at 24 per cent. In a Léger poll from July 28, the Bloc was leading at 31 per cent with the Liberals second at 27 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent.
The New Democratic Party came in at 10 per cent in the Léger poll and 12 per cent in the Abacus poll.
In June, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre predicted his party may achieve a “breakthrough” in Quebec when Canadians go to the polls in the next election, in the fall of 2025.
“I don’t want to be presumptuous, but my view is that if Quebecers have to choose between the costly coalition of (Justin) Trudeau and the NDP to tax their food, punish their work, double housing costs and unleash crime and chaos in their communities, or a common-sense Conservative government who will axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime, we have a chance for a breakthrough,” Poilievre said.
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