Tom Mulcair: Singh turned on Trudeau because he had to

Article content

When NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh released a video on Wednesday crowing that he had “ripped up” his supply-and-confidence deal with the Trudeau government, it was hard to discern any real cause.

The impending byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun may hold the key.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had dutifully checked off his list of promises to Singh. He has delivered on them one by one. Things like a national pharmacare program and anti-scab legislation had long been on the NDP’s list of priorities. They were now becoming a reality.

Article content

Singh offered up vintage bromides about the Liberals “caving to corporate greed.” He went so far as to say Trudeau didn’t deserve another chance, after having his NDP caucus vote their confidence in Trudeau for almost 2 ½ years.

A written statement by the NDP accompanied the video. They say you always have to read the fine print. Here is the last paragraph:

“The end of the Supply and Confidence Agreement does not automatically send voters to the polls — a majority of parliamentarians voting against the government on a confidence measure does. Singh said the NDP is ready for an election, and voting non-confidence will be on the table with each and every confidence measure.”

Translation: “On the table” means Singh is leaving the door open to ordering his caucus to support Trudeau, despite having just said that Trudeau doesn’t deserve another chance.

That’s called painting yourself into a corner.

At his press conference the next day, he confirmed he’d look at voting confidence in the Liberals, case by case. How could he rationalize that after what he said about Trudeau?

Article content

Singh is a skilled and experienced politician. What drove him to overplay his hand in this way?

He has always known that at some point he’d have to pull the plug on the deal; otherwise, how could he convince voters to go with him and not Trudeau? That, I am told on background, has turned into a problem for Singh.

It was entirely predictable that after servilely supporting Trudeau for so many years, Singh would face tough questions on voters’ doorsteps.

The NDP’s excellent candidate in the Montreal byelection, city councillor Craig Sauvé, knows his fellow progressives in the Verdun area very well. Throngs of young families, city dwellers who really like life in that borough, have buoyed left-leaning candidates for some time now. In the last provincial election, Québec solidaire took the riding and shook the political firmament, opening the door to a QS victory next door in Dominique Anglade’s riding when she stepped down.

I am told that volunteers had been getting tough questions about the NDP’s continued support for Trudeau. It wasn’t sitting well with the progressive crowd, and NDP insiders were very much aware of it.

Article content

Singh and his advisers were also aware that news on the ground in another byelection wasn’t great. Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona is a strong NDP riding held by Daniel Blaikie, whose resignation from Singh’s caucus provoked the byelection.

There were some sombre clouds gathering on Singh’s political horizon. A loss in Winnipeg would be a blow to his leadership. A loss in both could be devastating.

Singh started appearing in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun during the summer. The NDP was putting on a show of support (and strength) that I haven’t seen since Jack Layton threw everything into my own successful byelection victory in Outremont.

The riding includes LaSalle, which has many Liberal voters. The question is: Will they come out to vote?

It’s been a long time since a single Montreal race has had as much potential importance on the national stage. A win for Singh would give him a much-needed boost. The corollary — a loss for Trudeau — could mean the end of his leadership after his disastrous loss in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto—St. Paul’s.

Those two byelections will be held on Sept. 16, the same day that Parliament returns. Their results could have a determining influence on the future of both Singh and Trudeau.

Tom Mulcair, a former leader of the federal NDP, served as minister of the environment in the Quebec Liberal government of Jean Charest.

Article content

Article content